SBW-06D5H-U, BU51 bootloader - rawflash reports success but writes nothing (13 attempts)

[bikepilled]

Looking for help identifying the correct firmware for a drive with a MT1959 Boot BU51 bootloader, and understanding why rawflash reports success while committing nothing.

The drive

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Model (sticker)  ASUS SBW-06D5H-U (ultra-slim external USB, bus powered 5V 2.0A)
Manufactured     March 2026
Factory ID       SP1
P/N              15100-18282400
Enclosure        Buffalo bridge, USB ID 0411:55aa

Reports itself as:  ASUS BW-16D1HT 3.02
Drive ID:           ASUS_BW-16D1HT_3.02_211711241413_MO4P58C1526
Platform:           MTK19xx firmware module v1.30
Bootloader (0x3000): "MT1959 Boot BU51"
                     hex 4d543139353920426f6f742042553531

It was crossflashed with desktop BW-16D1HT 3.02 firmware before I got involved. Only the main firmware was overwritten - the bootloader was left intact, which is why the drive still enumerates and responds normally.

Which firmware should this be?

I scanned every image in the MartyMcNuts "All You Need" pack and the official mk-firmware-pack-20200720 (79 images). Exactly one has a BU51 bootloader:

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MK/HL-DT-ST/BU50N/HL-DT-ST-BD-RE_BU50N-1.00-NM00100-211711211006.bin